Lou Frey Predicts Obama-Clinton Ticket But I'm Not Buying It
At the beginning of this election cycle I predicted a Clinton-Obama ticket for the Democrats. To me, it seemed clear they would put Barack Obama out there for name recognition and to fire up the African American base of their party. For instance, here is what I wrote on October 26, 2006 on LaShawn Barber's blog in response to this incredible October 2006 cover of Time Magazine (calling him the next President) and the accompanying article extolling the virtues of the fresh face of Barack Obama:
I’m amazed it took this long to bring up Hillary because my bias says this is all a very carefully planned orchestration by the Clinton machine.
Hillary isn’t upset by any of this [RattlerGator: the fawning over Obama] — she is one of the primary planners of this whole charade. They clearly want him as the “dream” V.P. candidate. Regarding the earlier comment about him not supporting a local Democrat who bucked the machine, he has obviously worked with the Illinois machine because that is an essential component of the national Democrat machine and they are zeroed in on 2008.
What’s the script? You plant a series of stories now, ginned up by the party machine which is flying him around the country, just before the midterm elections, to try and excite a loyal black base of voters in an attempt to turn out this year *AND* allow them to fantasize about a black president in 2008 (as we all know, mediocre black turnout is bad news for Democrats).
Next, Barack Obama’s obvious inexperience allows you to place him on the 2008 ticket [doesn’t have to be Hillary; any Democrat will do] as a V.P. candidate and you push his Ivy League credentials as well as his fast-learning “brilliance” (y’all do remember the fawning over Hillary’s “brilliance” during the Clinton administration, don’t you?) to argue that on-the-job training combined with his well-documented intellect will obviously be sufficient to carry him through.
This is all quite obviously orchestrated; only time will tell whether it works.
I still believe that. Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama caught lightning in a bottle my recognizing the gift that is proportional representation, manipulating the delegate process in something of an Ali-like Rope-a-Dope, and playing chess far, far better than the Clintons who didn't even realize they were in a real fight. He accomplished this by brilliantly targeting Caucus states where Democrats will likely not carry the vote in November. Hillary's team made the mistake of presuming they were the nominee . . . and the rest is history. Barack is now the Uppity Negro and Hillary is now representative of the White Female Victim of the presumed havoc wrought by Affirmative Action.
Except, of course, she's a great beneficiary not only of affirmative action but identity politics as well. But that's ultimately neither here nor there, is it?
The resulting fast rise of Obama led me on February 12, 2008 to openly wonder if the Democrats are screwed in the November 2008 election no matter what they try and do. My opinion at the time was to answer that with a "yes, indeedy."
I still believe that, too.
I'm also certain that Hillary's team genuinely sees a disaster for the Democrats if Barack Obama heads the ticket. Additionally, the vitriol between the Obama and Clinton camps has been breathtaking. If you doubt this, take a look at what Marie Cocco has to say:
I will not miss the deafening, depressing silence of Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean or other leading Democrats, who to my knowledge (with the exception of Sen. Barbara Mikulski of Maryland) haven't uttered a word of public outrage at the unrelenting, sex-based hate that has been hurled at a former first lady and two-term senator from New York. Among those holding their tongues are hundreds of Democrats for whom Clinton has campaigned and raised millions of dollars. Don Imus endured more public ire from the political class when he insulted the Rutgers University women's basketball team.
Would the silence prevail if Obama's likeness were put on a tap-dancing doll that was sold at airports? Would the media figures who dole out precious face time to these politicians be such pals if they'd compared Obama with a character in a blaxploitation film? And how would crude references to Obama's sex organs play?
There are many reasons why Clinton is losing the nomination contest, some having to do with her strategic mistakes, others with the groundswell for "change." But for all Clinton's political blemishes, the darker stain that has been exposed is the hatred of women that is accepted as a part of our culture.
Wow. That's quite an indictment and she makes some damn good points. But hold up, Marie: the hatred of women that is part of our culture? A culture that insists a Yale grad, Harvard MBA, and qualified fighter pilot (George W. Bush) is stupid? The same one that routinely calls Dubya a monkey, and worse?
That culture, Marie? Woman, please!
That said, Hillary has been savaged. She has been treated unfairly in comparison to Barack Obama. Whenever I talk with African Americans about the Obama campaign it is quite clear they only see the upside, by and large. They never consider a Barack Obama who is a complete failure as President and what that might mean. They never seem to have contemplated, honestly contemplated, their readiness to have Obama, as President, called a monkey . . . and worse. You can tell they aren't truly prepared for this with just how brazen they have been with Hillary, as noted by Marie Cocco. Because of this phenomenal back and forth between the two camps, I see zero percent chance of an Obama-Clinton ticket.
She would never accept that and his folks would never trust her. Black people, I'm pretty confident, will not be in a mood to let bygones be bygones after this campaign is over. No matter what they publicly say. I suspect the same holds true for a significant amount of Hillary's white female supporters who still can't seem to stomach the fact of race trumping gender in this situation.
They aren't happy that Hillary has been dissed, they aren't sure about Barack but they sure as hell don't like Michelle, and many of them will never vote for Barack as President.
Nevertheless, Florida insider Lou Frey, a former Republican congressman representing Central Florida, still believes the ticket will be Obama-Clinton:
For some time I have believed that the Democratic ticket will be Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama. It appears clear that Hillary is not about to give up even though her nomination is a long shot. Lightning must strike and Obama must do something terribly stupid to give her a chance. Obama has to be like Mohammad Ali who would keep dancing away from his opponent until his opponent was exhausted, then Ali would step in and knock him out. Clinton is exhausting her friends, her family and her money, yet her staying in and fighting makes her withdrawal from the race even more dramatic.
Sen. Clinton has nowhere to go. If she returns to the Senate she will find a great many people still there who said they were going to support her and didn't. Privately people will smile over the fact that this experienced political leader dissipated a double digit lead and lost to a young Senator who is the most liberal in the Senate and never passed any meaningful legislation. Her chances of getting the presidential nomination next time, if Obama doesn't win, are slim.
There will be tremendous pressure from the Democratic leaders for her to take the Vice Presidential nomination with all sorts of promises about how important she will be. I have kept reminding people over and over again that in 1960 Lyndon Johnson was the most powerful political leader in Washington. He didn't like John Kennedy, nor did he have much respect for Kennedy. However it became clear to him that a Kennedy/Johnson ticket would win, especially as Johnson would carry Texas. Johnson held his nose, accepted the Vice Presidential nomination, and the rest is history. I believe the same pattern will be followed, and an Obama/Clinton ticket will start out with a 10% point lead over McCain.
I suspect Lou Frey is still a bit too mired in the past, much as Hillary Clinton was. Alluding to JFK gives it away. There are new rules at play, all premised on the old foundations but the modifications are substantive. Which means the evident hatred between the two camps has been amplified all over the nation via the 24/7 media, including the blogosphere. That will not be patched up and if, by some miracle, it was patched up -- the duo would not constitute a dream team. Not in the slightest. If you think Bill Clinton has made some occasional missteps in the primaries, what the heck do you think he will do during the general election?
That's not going to happen. Obama-Clinton or not, the Democrats are screwed.
You're not kidding about Senator Obama bottling that lightning. It's transparent once you can see through the label. It practically sticks its tongue at you.
Posted by: Alexis | May 15, 2008 at 11:47 AM