Those are the words of the President in his just-concluded statement at the White House -- the direct quote or sufficient paraphrase -- "unwavering solidarity with the Republic of Georgia."
Americans are on the way, including the Secretary of State, military personnel and assets, along with humanitarian assistance. Posted below are a series of comments delivered prior to that statement from the President that may represent the "best case scenario" that we can hope to result from this Russian old-school power play. It is pulled from the comments at the Belmont Club, of course -- in a post titled The War in the Ether:
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[1]
neolex:
It seems to me that
Russia has been threatened by the US, with something, but I can't
imagine what it would be, besides the Stabilization Fund ($157 billion)
being frozen.
Russia will likely lose G8 and OSCE memberships for quite some time
(or at least will not be invited to the meetings, while formally being
a member), it can forget about WTO and NATO-Russia meetings are also
history.
It seems that Putin has miscalculated in his arrogance. He wanted to
take Tbilisi and get rid of Saakashvili but couldn't do it in the time
before US response (whatever that was). It is also possible that he was
restrained internally. I wonder how much the following things played a
role:
- Georgians invading SO to meet advancing Russian forces.
- Georgians leaving Gori to avoid heavy losses.
- US intelligence available to Georgians
- Poor state of Russian military (reportedly Russian tanks were
breaking down every few kilometers while moving into Georgia through
the tunnel).
- S200 air defence that Ukraine supplied Georgia and Russia did not know about
- Reported anti-tank weapon made by either Israel or BAE
On the flip side, Russia gets to keep SO and Abhazia.
Aug 12, 2008 - 6:33 pm
[2]
fedya:
@neolex:
I must have missed something, too, not having seen anything from Mika.
Perhaps there is a hovering moderator… and thanx for the endorsement!
Things were locked down here so I posted over at the naval confab, http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/
SINCE Wretchard pointed out clear evidence of the excellent fighting
ability of the Georgians, and SINCE it seems obvious to me that a great
many of the people of Georgia are spoiling for a chance to cut off
Ivan's already bloodied nose, I say we help them fight and my bet is
that we are in the process of doing that at this very moment.
Following is part of my post at the boat-floater's convention:
Russia is sure it can force Georgia to become a "neutral" state with
permanent Russian occupation of South Ossettia and Abkhazia.
However, many–Turkey and Azerbaijan in particular–desperately need
to prevent Russia and Iran from dividing The Caspian between
themselves. The Greater Caucasus Mountains should be the northern edge
of an open "Silk Road" from the Caspian to the Mediterranean.
….
Russia is strong, but very sick, and therefore all the more
dangerous. She is a kleptocracy run by appparatchik bandits, no more,
no less. And bandits, even bandits lighting fires of nationalist
conflict, can be beaten to a stand-still by a liberty-loving people.
Stop Russia in Georgia with Ukrainian, Turkish and Azeri proxies
supporting Georgians at the tip of the spear. This will force Russian
siloviki out of South Ossettia (the central strategic necessity). The
means will be anti-air/anti-armor weapons in Georgian hands, NATO
overflights of the Lesser Causasus and an open Black Sea naval corridor
along the Turkish coast to Batumi.
How? Start by stabilizing a Mtskheta- Dusheti- Ananuri- Mt.Kazbek
Line to close the biggest invasion route, the fabled Georgian Military
Road (is Mtskheta still in Georgian hands?). That will keep the huge
reservoir watering Georgia and contain the so-called "Ossetians".
And Abkhazia? Well, I'd predict a permanent Russian naval base in
Sukhumi. No way to stop it. Let them have the entire Kodori Gorge, with
it, too.
Are you listening?
Then howzzabout a joint US-Turkish-Georgian naval base at Georgia's
southernmost port [once a huge Russian combined arms base] at Batumi?
Voila! Instant 21st century Fulda Gap sitting on a 21st Century Silk
Road reaching all the way to China. The 'stans are gonna love it.
Azeri's and Turks are REALLY gonna love it. And China's gotta love it,
too, mmm-hmmm.
Poor pooty Putin and the Persians, aced out of their lockhold on the geographic center of the world. Hallelujah!
Aug 12, 2008 - 7:38 pm
[3]
fedya:
@fred:
we seem to have passed into a new and more dangerous period where
our enemies have advantages that they can use to take long gambles with.
Well, if this gamble by Putin and the siloviki fails badly [for
them], at least we can take heart that long odds can be very bad odds.
Russia is too sick to withstand a big downturn, and too dangerous to
be allowed to take advantage of recklessness born of greed and
desperation.
Aug 12, 2008 - 7:43 pm
[4]
neolex:
The gamble has
already failed. Russia has damaged its standing beyond repair for the
foreseeable future. There is a lot of information missing as to it's
decision to halt, but it seems to me that Russia moving beyond SO
borders, and not capturing Tbilisi means it failed. It could have
stayed in SO, and not have damaged it's standing. At this point it
appears that Putin miscalculated somewhere, either the speed with which
Russian military can accomplish the objective, or US response (which we
still dont know).
Aug 12, 2008 - 7:52 pm
neolex:
[5]
It
is also notable that not a single country came out with support for
Russia (besides Cuba). Even Chavez kept his mouth shut. Not a single
CIS country, including Russian allies who have borders with Russia put
out any supporting statements.
Aug 12, 2008 - 7:56 pm
[6]
fedya:
@Lifeofthemind:
Fedya, One question about the Wisdom of giving Russia Abkhazia.
I suppose that it would simply be impossible to get them out of
there. One can't give something one doesn't first possess. Them
Russkies just finished a military railroad along the coast and they
really, really do need a safer [for them] alternative to Sebastopol.
Perhaps Abkhazia-Sukhumi that is all they actually feel they HAVE to
have for existential survival. Master Sun Tsu strongly advises us not
to try to destroy a trapped enemy. Then you get things like the Battle
of the Bulge spoiling your plans.
If so, it would take a world infantry war to clear them out, not just a very tough bunch of small unit Georgians.
The Abkhazians are descendents of the ethnic Russians who killed or
expelled EVERY Muslim in Abkhasia (60% of population; now there's a
trail of tears for ya) in the 1860's & '70's.
In 1992 they ethnically cleansed 30,000+ ethnic Georgians (vs 1500+
the other way), no doubt as a delayed reaction to Stalin forcing them
to speak Georgian instead of Russian[!].
Abkhazia SHOULD be Georgian, but if a U.S.-backed Trans-Caucasian
Union operates a NATO-affiliated base on the other side of the valley,
Western Georgia becomes a tripwire like the Fulda Gap in Central
Europe. Any massed Russian troops there who dare to move will be erased
immediately with the common assent of every Turkic nation, not just
tough little Georgia.
Note well that this does not actually require (or even WANT) NATO
participation to work. All nations around the Black and Caspian Seas
other than Iran and Russia will be dying if this doesn't work. It will
also, I would imagine, require a US-Chinese "understanding".
Turkey has to have guarantors against the Russkies and the All New! Persians. Azerbaijan is even more desperate.
And isn't Armenia way overdue for a "color" revolution? Sheesh.
So, now that Ivan has awakened us all, perhaps he should get Sukhumi
as a consolation prize for his having united a Black and Caspian Seas
Treaty Organization against himself, and created a tripwire against any
further expansion Southward.
Takes pressure off the Ukraine, too.
Ivan gets a bunch of mountains filled with the ghosts of his
victims. World trade gets a new Silk Road built out of pipelines. World
peace gets China and Europe competing in Central Asia on price, not
chokeholds.
Priceless!
I hope our poker-playing President may soon reveal a hand like this,
a hand that only great skill, nerve, and wits could have put together
starting, of necessity, a few years ago when the cards were mostly
dealt.
And, what a helluvah big pot!
Aug 12, 2008 - 9:47 pm
[7]
fedya:
@Cannoneer No. 4:
PSYOP. The whole Russian invasion of Georgia was PSYOP aimed at
intimidating all the former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact members.
If their desired hard advantages are/were (1) a safe naval port
(Sukhimi) and (2)defacto control over Trans-Caucasus pipelines, this
(3), PSYOPS, is both larger and in service to the smaller goals.
@Lifeofthemind:
For your lovely plan to work it would demand sustained cooperation between Azeris, Georgians, Armenians and the Turks
Hmm, by focusing on specific stakeholders, you're convincing me the "lovely" plan is an exciting possibility…
1: GEORGIA-AZERBAIJAN:
They are ALREADY cooperating on a number of pipeline projects! THEY ARE
IN LOVE, BABY!!! They *need* each other existentially. That's
TROOLY-True Love when your alternatives are the Persians or The Bear.
Score: +1
2: ARMENIA:
Armenians are not now [and will not soon be] involved.
The one issue with the Armenians is keeping Russian troops based in
Gyumri from moving on Georgia's East. Turkey is a NATO country and
Turkey needs the Gruzinii-Azerii axis to free itself of Russian-Persian
domination.
Every one of the dozens of Trans-Caucasus pipeline proposals (there
is a lot of competition for "Silk Road" pipeline proposals) I've
noticed (using Google and then diving in) being touted are Armenia-free
and differ only in whether they terminate in Southern Turkey or the
Georgian Black Sea. Just take a good look at the Lesser Caucasus range;
that'll make explanation superfluous.
Score (for absence of Armenian involvement) +1
3: KURDISTAN:
What? Other than the PKK doing minor, temporary damage, have Kurds
anywhere shut down any Arab or Turkish pipeline? If "No" is the wrong
answer, please do tell me how so.
The newest trans-Caucasus pipeline enters Turkey and runs straight
Southerly into Erzurum, thence to the Mediterranean. Even though it
skirts around Kurdistan (Lake Van) it hasn't seen any big knockouts. In
general, Black Sea coastal Turkey is not populated by Kurds, no?
Anyway, ALL the players in this drama are Turkic peoples (no Kurds,
whose language is Indo-Iranian), with the sole exception of the
Georgians. Gruzinii (Georgians in Russkii-style patois) have already
figured out that they can deal to advantage with any friggin' Turks
they've ever seen, whether in Anatolia or around the Caspian.
Score: 0 (a wash)
CHINA:
Sure they are stuck with playing The Game, for NOW. They can't mount a
military challenge to the current monopolists, so they deal–albeit at a
distinct disadvantage. That is why they would possibly be enthusiastic
guarantors of any relatively cheap way to keep those damned Czarist
soliviki out of their pocketbooks.
Russia and Persia want to extract a surcharge on anything sold to
either China or the West, and everyone knows it, including the
Caspiskii who are getting astronomically screwed by the Russians. The
'stans can quadruple their pay while cutting China's or Ukraine's
prices in half, according to supposedly knowledgeable people. I think
it is reasonable to assume that we can both vastly improve income going
to the 'stans AND cut prices to Les Chinoise and the free world.
Chinese competing with Bulgaria, et al, on producers' prices will do
much better than if they have to pay a Russian or Persian surcharge. A
free market for Central Asian oil and gas will tend to encourage
peaceful cooperation, more predictable prices, and a broader–more
equitable–distribution of risk throughout. This contrasts sharply with
the present Russian-dominated "Great Game" of Imperialist Market
Chokeholders.
Score: +2, (a lot of money and a lot of muscle)
RUSSIA:
"innovation Putin brought to this game"
Putin is stuck in a bad dilemma, and he's stuck with the outdated
tools of Czarist mobster-style, feudalistic oppression. The Commies
never came up with a better system, merely a vastly more ruthless
version of the Same Old Stuff. He's a high-level mobster. Mobsters die
quickly (at other mobster's hands) when their intended victims pull
together and fight back. "The Godfather" is a cute fairytale with a
great soundtrack, right? So too, is Czarist control of the
Trans-Caucasus and the Caspian, [I say].
Score: 0 (a wash)
Total score:
+4 out of possible plus or minus 5
(yes, I rigged it, just like Pooty-Tooty-Baby thought he rigged the outcome of his invasion of Georgia; mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa…)
Seriously, wanna bet? Let's open a futures market on it.
OK, how much would you bet that if we keep a "Silk Road" based on a
free Georgia open, that Putin will live past New Year's day, 2010?
50:50?
20:80?
Mmm-hmmm, thought so. So, umm, is this worth a struggle to find out if it works? I'd say, YES, we can bet on it.
Aug 13, 2008 - 2:13 am
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At this point, the whole world is guessing along with us. The President is serious, and too many people are talking about what the American press, voters, etc. are or are not interested in. The only thing that matters now is that President Bush has been lied to and is not pleased, and has bowed his back.
I hope.
And I do believe that is the case. Hang in there, Georgia.
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